From Manon on Asphalt to Toyland to The Pig, a collection of French, German, Irish, and Danish films provide a European flavor for Oscar pickers. Red Carpet bloggers Nate Freiberg and Adam Spunberg analyze this often misunderstood category for 2009.

FREIBERG: We start off with the less prestigious categories, those for short films – both live action and animated. These are notoriously difficult awards to predict for a few reasons. First, as the short is not a popular medium in the U.S., foreign films typically dominate these categories (in fact, all five of this year’s nominees are international efforts), making it even more difficult to get any information about them, let alone see them yourself.

Secondly, the Academy members who actually vote in these categories are required to actually see all five nominated films. So unlike some of the acting categories, where buzz and perception can often play a large role in determining votes, here the actual quality of the film is what matters. While this is of course as it should be, without the buzz to go on, it actually makes these awards tougher to predict. The rare categories in which seeing the films actually helps. So be forewarned – we haven’t seen any of these and we’re guessing you haven’t either!

Auf der Strecke (On the Line)

FREIBERG: A German film about a department-store security guard who witnesses a romantic rival of his being attacked on a train, but leaves the man to fend for himself instead of coming to his aid. The premise here definitely sounds promising – you’ve got a singular event that subsequently torments the security guard’s conscience. Focused subject with the potential to be meaningful. It’s already racked up an impressive string of festival wins, including Brooklyn, Aspen, Hamburg and Cracow.

SPUNBERG: A compelling case can be made, sure, but if Auf der Strecke wants to ensure victory, it’s probably going to have to watch its four competitors get attacked by Hollywood gangstas (Lindsay Lohan?) while standing by with a pint of Heineken. Of course, we’d like to believe the masterminds behind an unheralded project such as this one would have a conscience. Then again, wasn’t it the Mozart of Pickpockets that won it last year? When it comes to Oscar glory…who knows, who knows.

Manon on the Asphalt

FREIBERG: A French film about a woman who is involved in a bicycle accident, and while she waits for the ambulance to arrive, she has an out-of-body experience that allows her to visit her friends as they hear the news. An ambitious premise – though maybe too ambitious given the 15-minute running time. Among the five nominees, this film also has taken home the least hardware (winning only Toronto) and further weakening its chances.

SPUNBERG: It may be low in current hardware, but the Academy has been known to give breath to short films with lifeless hopes. The tantalizing premise alone should garner a few votes. … I see it as a morph of The Sixth Sense and Waking Ned Devine (with a French twist?). No DNRs here.

New Boy

FREIBERG: The lone nominee in English, albeit an Irish production. A 9-year-old African boy named Joseph moves to Ireland and takes his spot as the new kid in school. A simple plot with good potential to score high on the cuteness scale, and more than a few voters will probably be able to relate to the film in some way. Has won all the major Irish festivals and even took home the top prize at Berlin, Melbourne, Seattle and Tribeca.

SPUNBERG: The progressive concept behind New Boy fits nicely within the Obamamania sweeping Hollywood right now, and the fact that the film has received such universal recognition should only help. We all remember being the “new kid” in school, but circumstances are far more drastic for Joseph. According to the most recent census data, black people make up only 1.1% of the Irish population. Great film, great message. This little immigrant tale that could, could win the finest trophy in the land.

The Pig

FREIBERG: We now move east to Denmark for the Danish film The Pig. The 23-minute short takes place in a hospital room, where a man awaiting surgery finds comfort in a painting of a pig hanging on his wall. Lest you think this is a whimsical tale, the film deals with questions of personal freedom and religious rights as the painting inspires a contentious debate. Some Academy members are bound to be turned off by the religious elements – the film will probably be best off if it doesn’t itself take a stand in the debate. The judges also appear to have been skeptical so far – they only gave it the top prize in Miami.

SPUNBERG: How narrow-minded of you, Nate, to disqualify such a worthy cinematic effort as a piece of … slop. Maybe a gluttonous filmgoer such as yourself can cast a tummy-filled eye at this celluloid tale of cellulite, but thankfully the Academy has better taste. Contained within The Pig’s scope is something inherently beautiful, and who’s to say a little religious controversy isn’t Kosher? I believe The Pig just might be the little runt that wins a blue ribbon at the fair.

Spielzeugland (Toyland)

FREIBERG: A German kid loses his Jewish best friend when he is shipped off to a concentration camp with his family. As a means of protecting him, his mother tells him his friend has been shipped off to Toyland. This German production clocks in at a brisk 13 minutes, and you can never count out a Holocaust picture, even if it’s just on the periphery. Won best short at Asheville.

SPUNBERG: It’s understandable how many have grown frustrated with the unparalleled success of Holocaust pictures, but this is a topic that must be shown and shown again. What I love about this film is how it takes the fantastical elements of Life Is Beautiful and weaves them into a condensed version of this year’s The Boy in Striped Pajamas. Just as we delight in Babes in Toyland, so must we suffer through Spielzeugland, and remember those fateful words: Never again. Consider this yet another positive step in Germany’s belated struggle to come to grips with its noxious past.

Conclusion

FREIBERG: In recent years, Academy members have more often than not skewed toward films possessing a certain brand of humor, no matter how understated. To wit, the last two winners were 2006’s West Bank Story - an over-the-top Israeli/Palestinian fast-food musical comedy – and 2007’s Le Mozart des Pickpockets – a light-hearted film about thievery in the streets of Paris. As serious, highbrow films usually garner the big Oscars, it’s not surprising that the Academy might want to reward more lighthearted fare here. To that end, the fast-paced New Boy has both the right kind of subject matter and the full trophy case to back it up.

SPUNBERG: As you mentioned before, the great thing about these smaller categories is their unpredictability. I can see all five of these films winning the award, and very few people would complain (the directors of the other four and their mothers?). That being said, I like your logic on New Boy. It does seem to fit the winning mold. If I had to pick a darkhorse, however, I’d go with Manon on the Asphalt. Why? Because it’s French!