In recent years, spring films haven’t had much luck come Oscar season. What does that mean for well-reviewed recent releases such as State of Play, Sunshine Cleaning, and Adventureland? Adam Spunberg takes a closer look at these spring flicks.

Be Tardy or Be Tarred
By Adam Spunberg

Benjamin Franklin was the last son, home runs are best in the 9th inning, and if you want to win an Oscar, you had better release your film when the leaves turn all kinds of dramatic colors and holiday music jingles through every department store (you know…the way Hollywood likes it!). Release a film before September and your Oscar chances disappear like Renee Zellwegger’s waistline after a turn as Bridget Jones.

The last three Best Picture winners were all released near the end of year. Here were their limited release dates:

The Departed: September 26, 2006
No Country for Old Men: November 9, 2007
Slumdog Millionaire: November 12, 2008

This phenomenon does not just apply to Oscar winners but also to nominees. Over that same three-year period, let’s examine the other twelve Best Picture nominees:

Babel: October 27, 2006
Letters from Iwo Jima: December 20, 2006
Little Miss Sunshine: July 26, 2006
The Queen: October 6, 2006
Atonement: December 7, 2007
Juno: December 5, 2007
Michael Clayton: October 5, 2007
There Will Be Blood: December 26, 2007
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: December 25, 2008
Frost/Nixon: December 5, 2008
Milk: November 26, 2008
The Reader: December 10, 2008

Little Miss Sunshine is the only film to grace America before October, and its induction in the Oscar beauty pageant was far from anticipated. Seven of the twelve were released in December.

Why do these films get preferential treatment? There are several possible reasons. First of all, these later films are more likely to be fresh in the voters’ minds; an Academy member may not remember the artistry in a summer blockbuster, but he or she will certainly recall the cinematography in a film from last week. The studios also play into it, purposely withholding movies that have “OSCAR” marked in imaginary Sharpie along each reel. This has been well documented. Lastly, the vast majority of good films get released in the holiday season because that’s when people go to the movies. The kids are off from school, families get together, and Jews have nowhere to go on Christmas Eve. It all adds up.

Does this mean that there is no hope for the early crop of 2009 films, like State of Play, Sunshine Cleaning, or Sugar? Probably, but nothing is impossible. The Soloist, starring Robert Downey Jr. and Jamie Foxx was supposed to be an Oscar contender, but mixed reviews and poor promotion efforts stand in its way. Sometimes a light, well-intentioned movie like Adventureland can sneak into contention when it packs some unexpected bite, a la Little Miss Sunshine or Lost in Translation. Perhaps the most encouraging example for these early hopefuls is Crash, which defied the odds and won the 2005 Best Picture award despite being released in early May. Unfortunately, I just don’t see it happening, just as many of the voters won’t remember seeing them at all.