Globes Can Predict Oscars — Sometimes

golden_globe_awardBy Marla Seidell

The 67th Annual Golden Globes will occur on January 17, 2010 at the Beverly Hills Hilton, broadcast on NBC at 8 pm EST, but the nominees will be announced tomorrow morning. Always a splashy affair, with millions donated to entertainment-related charities and the red carpet an epicenter of scrutiny and glamour, the Golden Globes represent the international community of film. But how exactly do they differ from the Academy Awards?

Let’s look back at history. The Academy Awards were inaugurated in 1928 in the effort to improve Hollywood’s tarnished image. The Hollywood Foreign Press founded the Golden Globe Awards in 1944. At the time, America had been pulled into WWII through Pearl Harbor and the entertainment community – journalists and filmmakers alike – were trying to divert audiences from the harsh realities of war.

The main difference between the two awards programs is in the categories and the fact that television is incorporated into the program. The Cecil B. Demille Award for a great director/producer runs parallel to the Special Achievement Award given out at the Oscars. In terms of the categories, Best Picture at the Golden Globes is divided into two categories of Drama and Comedy/Musical, and the same goes for the Leading Actor and Leading Actress awards, and for the television awards. Differing from the Academy, the Best Screenplay award at the Golden Globes is combined into one category, whereas the Academy splits the award into Best Original Screenplay and Screenplays Adapted to another medium.

2009 Golden Globe winners include “Slumdog Millionaire” for Best Picture, Drama; “Vicky Cristina Barcelona,” for Best Picture, Musical or Comedy; Kate Winslet won Best Actress, Drama for her role in “Revolutionary Road”; and Mickey Rourke won Best Actor in a Drama for his role in “The Wrestler.” Kate Winslet won Best Supporting Actress for her role in “The Reader,” and Heath Ledger won Best Supporting Actor for his role in “The Dark Knight.” “Mad Men” won Best Drama Series for Television, and “30 Rock” won Best Musical or Comedy Series.

As writer John Sanchez argues in an article on the history of the Golden Globe Awards, the Globes are not a precursor of the Academy Awards, despite this commonly misunderstood belief. In some cases, the Globes can accurately predict the Oscars, as in 1972, when the “The Godfather” took major award at both programs. But in 1973, “The Sting” swooped up seven awards at the Oscars yet did not receive a single award at the Globes.

Over the years, the Globes have suffered its reputation due to rumors of “fixing” in the voting. From 1968 to 1974 network television stopped airing the show due to this reason. And the award for Best Newcomer in Film was removed after Pia Zadora won the award in 1982 for her role in “Butterfly.” It was later said that her millionaire husband sent gifts to members of the Foreign Press, and the award was removed from the program.

Despite its struggle to hold its own against the Oscars and rumors of “fixing,” the Golden Globes is a major industry event that often predicts the Oscars yet maintains its own identity as an international community of entertainment and film.

Membership in the Academy (currently 6,000) is by invitation only, while the Hollywood Foreign Press Association represents 55 countries with approximately five journalists added each year.

Nominations for the Globes are typically announced before Christmas, coinciding with a drive to increase audience traffic over the holiday season. This year’s Cecil B. DeMille Award will go to director Martin Scorsese.

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