By Scott Drake

It’s already been tough to read this season’s Best Actor race, what with Academy favorite Sean Penn pulling a masterful – though somehow predictable – performance out of his endless bag of tricks, and Frank Langella’s chillingly quiet dominion over FROST/NIXON hovering as a very real dark horse.

But from very early on, it always just felt like this was Mickey Rourke’s Oscar to lose. Penn and Langella lived up to their substantial reputations, but they never surprised us. Rourke came out of the dirt beneath the woodwork, he refused to be ignored. The way his performance was regarded, you could not deny the man a nomination. It appeared no one could deny Mickey Rourke the statuette.

Except, maybe, Mickey Rourke.

First, Mickey announces he will join WRESTLEMANIA, even getting in an on-air faux-altercation with Chris Jericho, then retracts his bizarre declaration days later. Then he proceeds to give outlandish and occasionally profane speeches at both the Golden Globes and the BAFTAS, the latter of which included multiple references to Marisa Tomei’s nude scenes in The Wrestler. (Not to be crass, Mickey graciously thanked Marisa for her… nudity.)

Now, in a glorious cherry on top, it is being reported that Mickey’s in the midst of a relationship with Courtney Love (the Academy’s own fallen princess of Darkness, she of the failed redemption/makeover) which began approximately three weeks ago.

I’d like to be clear and let everyone know that I think it’s totally cool for Rourke to date whomever the self-help he likes. The Academy, however, might not smile so brightly on this freedom of spirit. As we all (should) know, the average Academy member is about 109.3 years old and sees the Academy itself as a monument to the importance of film, a great levee against the rising tide of popcorn, comedy, animation, and teenagers. (Disagree? Fine. Give me one good reason BENJAMIN BUTTON beat out WALL-E this year. Just one good reason that isn’t, “because he’s born old and grows young and that is just really profound!”)

How will Academy members respond to Mickey’s antics? That is unclear. Maybe they’ll think his WRESTLEMANIA announcement was a publicity stunt (fine), his speeches refreshingly original (true), and his love life his own personal business (we’d hope). Maybe they’ll ignore everything else and focus on the performance (ummmmm). Maybe, but I’m far from convinced.

One month ago, I would have put Rourke as a near lock for the win. The personal story, the performance, the universal acclaim, they all seemed to be falling into place. Now, I don’t know… Sean Penn’s looking really, really good, and very, well, Academic. It’s getting much tougher to call Rourke the true favorite.

But I’ll probably still go with the wrestler.

(Photo: Joel Ryan/Associated Press)